The fixed communications market in Australia is expected to see steady growth with a projected compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 0.7% from 2022 to 2027. Although there is expected to be a decline in fixed voice revenues, this is set to be offset by a rise in fixed broadband service revenues, which are anticipated to drive the overall fixed communications market to increase from $8 billion in 2022 to $8.3 billion in 2027, forecasts GlobalData, a leading data and analytics company.
GlobalData’s Australia Fixed Communication Forecast Model (Q1-2023) indicates that the fixed voice service revenue will decline at a CAGR of 3.4% over 2022-2027 due to the drop in the overall fixed voice average revenue per user (ARPU) levels.
Srikanth Vaidya, Telecom Analyst at GlobalData, comments: “Subscribers’ inclination towards mobile and OTT-based communication services will also drag down the fixed voice revenues over the coming years.”
Fixed broadband service revenue, on the other hand, is expected to increase at a CAGR of 2.1% over the forecast period, mainly driven by the growth in fiber-to-the-home/business (FTTH/B) subscriptions, on the back of the ongoing coverage expansions by the government.
Vaidya continues: “Fiber lines accounted for a majority 71.5% share of the total fixed broadband lines in 2022, which will increase to about 75.3% in 2027. This growth will be supported by the rising demand for high-speed Internet services in the country and the government’s focus on aggressive fiber network expansion nationwide under the National Broadband Network (NBN) project.”
For instance, in June 2022, NBN made it possible for customers in around 160,000 premises served by Fibre to the Curb (FTTC) in New South Wales, Victoria and South Australia to upgrade to Fibre to the Premises (FTTP). In addition, NBN aims to extend the Fibre to the Node (FTTN) to FTTP network upgrade program to about 3.5 million premises by the year-end 2025.
Vaidya concludes: “Telstra will lead the fixed voice services market through 2027, in terms of subscriptions, supported by its strong foothold in VoIP segment. The operator will also lead the fixed broadband market supported by its focus on fiber network coverage expansion and the promotion of cost-effective multi-play plans at discounted prices.”
