The overall Radio Access Network (RAN) market will drop 21% between 2021 and 2029 but the 6G RAN sector will be worth around USD30 billion by the early 2030s, according to a new 6G report released this week by the Dell’Oro Group.
“This is an interesting time in the broader radio access network journey,” the company says in a statement accompanying the report’s release
Following 40 – 50% revenue growth between 2017 and 2021, the RAN market faces a second consecutive year of steep declines. While the pace of decline is expected to moderate after 2024, downward pressure is likely to persist until 6G becomes a reality. In addition to the typical market fluctuations that have shaped the RAN landscape over the past 30-plus years, the overpromising of 5G and its inability to significantly alter the flat revenue trend among operators are fueling increased scepticism regarding the need for substantial investments in new technologies.
“Some scepticism is warranted. After all, operators invested over USD2 trillion in wireless capex between 2010 and 2023 to build out 4G and 5G, yet revenues remain flat,” said Dell’Oro Group’s Stefan Pongratz. “Looking ahead, operators will need to optimise their spectrum roadmaps to address various data traffic scenarios.”
“Our base case assumes that mobile data traffic growth will continue to slow, enabling operators to improve their capital intensity ratios, which will, in turn, put further downward pressure on the RAN market,” he added. “However, additional capacity will eventually be required, and at that point, leveraging larger spectrum bands and the existing macro grid will likely offer the most cost-effective solution.”
Additional highlights from the new 6G Advanced Research Report include:
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Total RAN revenues are projected to trend downward until 2029;
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6G RAN revenues to approach USD30 billion by 2033; and
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Sub-7 GHz and cmWave macros are expected to dominate the 6G mix by 2033.
