A GSMA report released on 5 November 2026 estimates 6G mobile networks could add $1.24 trillion to the global economy by 2040, but warns that limited spectrum availability could put up to $520 billion of that figure at risk.
The report, Vision 2040: The Economic Benefits of 6G, estimates 6G would lift global GDP by 0.7% in 2040 compared with a scenario in which 5G remains the most advanced mobile technology. It attributes the projected gains to developments including AI-native networks, integrated sensing, industrial automation, immersive digital services, and the integration of terrestrial and satellite connectivity.
The GSMA said government decisions on spectrum will influence how much of the forecast economic contribution is realised, with international decisions expected at the World Radiocommunication Conference in 2027 (WRC-27).
John Giusti, Chief Regulatory Officer at the GSMA, said: “6G represents a $1.24 trillion opportunity for the global economy. The next generation of mobile technology will help power AI, transform industries and unlock new levels of productivity across the economy. But these benefits are not guaranteed. More than $500 billion of the economic value will depend on the spectrum decisions governments make today to fully realise the economic potential of 6G in the decades ahead.”
The report identifies manufacturing and financial services as the largest projected beneficiaries, accounting for 20% and 19% respectively of 6G’s additional economic contribution in 2040. Construction is forecast to account for 13%, and information and communications technology for 12%.
It also outlines five areas expected to drive incremental value: connectivity for future AI systems; industrial automation and robotics; enhanced mobile broadband and fixed wireless access; integrated sensing and communication; and non-terrestrial networks to extend coverage into underserved areas.
Regionally, the report forecasts Greater China could account for $390 billion in additional economic value by 2040, followed by North America at $290 billion and Europe at $225 billion. The report notes that outcomes will depend on adoption rates, infrastructure readiness and the ability of organisations to incorporate new technology.
On spectrum, the GSMA report estimates mid-band spectrum will be responsible for 70% of 6G’s economic contribution in 2040, while low-band spectrum would account for about 25% due to its role in wide-area and indoor coverage. It warns that constrained access to these spectrum ranges could reduce 6G’s economic contribution by as much as $520 billion in 2040, and that the effects would be compounded by impacts on existing mobile networks that share the same spectrum resources.
The report calls on governments and regulators to make at least 2 GHz of mid-band spectrum available by around 2030, including upper 6 GHz spectrum and additional capacity in the upper 3.5 GHz, 4.5 GHz and 7 GHz bands. It also urges making the 600 MHz band available for 6G, with 500 MHz considered where appropriate, and establishing national spectrum roadmaps to provide investment certainty.
Giusti concluded: “Spectrum is not simply a technical requirement for mobile networks; it is a foundation for future economic growth. With 6G on the horizon, governments have an opportunity to ensure their economies can benefit from the next wave of digital innovation. Getting spectrum policy right now will be essential to making that happen.”
You can read the full report here.
