Australian agriculture is facing decisions that will shape its productivity, profitability and sustainability towards 2050, according to a new discussion paper released by CSIRO and the Australian Farm Institute.
Ag2050 next steps – scenarios to decisions outlines near-term decisions, uncertainties and practical actions expected to influence Australian agriculture in coming years, including in areas such as sovereign security, resilience, trusted sustainability reporting and agricultural innovation.
CSIRO Program Lead Dr Rose Roche said the paper follows earlier work begun in 2024 with industry to co-design four evidence-based future scenarios for Australian farming systems, which were presented in the Ag2050 Scenarios Report.
“We started in 2024 working with industry to co-design four evidence-based future scenarios for Australian farming systems, exploring their benefits and trade-offs, which we presented in the Ag2050 Scenarios Report,” said Dr Roche.
“The four scenarios were then used as a lens during an Ag2050 roundtable in March this year involving government, industry, research, regional and Indigenous organisations to identify near-term decisions shaping Australian agriculture.”
The four future scenarios described are:
1) Regional Ag capitals – a consolidated and technologically advanced sector focused on productivity gains, food and fibre production, and growth in select regional centres.
2) Landscape stewardship – a diversified sector balancing food and fibre production with carbon sequestration, biodiversity, ecosystem services and energy production.
3) Climate survival – a sector relying on incremental adaptation and diversification to manage climate impacts rather than pursuing transformative change.
4) System decline – a sector facing declining productivity and resilience due to delayed and fragmented responses to growing challenges.
Dr Katherine Wynn, who led the development of the scenarios and stakeholder meeting, said the roundtable helped identify where uncertainty was slowing action and where greater coordination, evidence and investment could support decision-making.
“When the Ag2050 scenarios were developed, many of these challenges were still emerging,” said Dr Wynn.
“Today they are embedded in decision-making across government and industry, making it more important than ever to understand how today’s choices are shaping Australia’s agricultural future.”
Australian Farm Institute Executive Director Katie McRobert said the program of work was providing insights intended to help guide the future direction of the farm sector.
“The strategic choices that we make today are going to have significant impact in the years leading to 2050,” said Ms McRobert.
“From productivity to land and water use to climate impacts and the growing use of technology to support decision making – there is a lot for the sector to consider.”
CSIRO said the discussion paper is intended to support further conversations with government, industry, research, regional and Indigenous organisations about decisions, evidence and coordination needed for the future.
