Dell’Oro Group says early 6G development is tracking as an “evolutionary” step from 5G, with cumulative 6G radio access network (RAN) capital expenditure projected to reach $0.5 trillion by 2034, according to a June 2026 research report.
The market research firm’s base-case scenario anticipates 6G will build on existing network approaches including Massive MIMO, current site grids and wider channel bandwidths, aiming to improve RAN economics rather than drive a fundamental reset of the RAN market.
“While the G decoupling movement is gaining momentum for all the right reasons, the most likely scenario is still that 6G will be another G, with 6G RAN capex expected to accelerate toward the end of the decade,” said Stefan Pongratz, Vice President of RAN and Telecom Capex Research at Dell’Oro Group. “At the same time, operators are in a much stronger position today from a network capacity perspective than they were during the transition from 4G to 5G. As a result, cumulative 6G RAN revenue during the first six years of the cycle is projected to be 10 to 20 percent lower than during the comparable period of the 5G cycle.”
Dell’Oro’s report highlights forecast 6G RAN growth even as it argues the technology is unlikely to expand the overall RAN market. In its baseline scenario, the broader RAN market grows at a 1 percent compound annual growth rate between 2030 and 2034.
Among the projections cited, Dell’Oro expects 6G RAN to “scale rapidly,” with cumulative RAN revenue and wireless capex during the first six years exceeding $100 billion and $500 billion, respectively. It also projects 6G RAN investments between 2029 and 2034 will account for about half of total RAN capex over the same period.
On spectrum, the report expects both Sub-7 GHz and cmWave bands to play “important roles” in deployments, while noting momentum is increasing for spectrum above 7 GHz.
The report positions these forecasts within ongoing industry debates about disaggregation and the “G decoupling” movement, suggesting that operators’ capacity position entering the 6G cycle could temper near-term revenue compared with the early years of 5G.
