
According to a recent forecast report by Dell’Oro Group, mobile backhaul transport equipment for 5G networks is forecast to grow at a compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) of 12% from 2024 through 2028 before declining the following year, when the attention shifts to 6G network upgrades.
“The 5G cycle started in 2018 and ramped through 2023, driving demand for both wireless and fibre backhaul systems,” said Dell’Oro Group Vice President Jimmy Yu. “After a decline in 2024, we anticipate the 5G cycle will drive more demand for mobile backhaul equipment through 2028, which we believe is the year that marks the end of the 5G cycle and the beginning of the 6G cycle.”
Additional highlights from the Microwave Transmission & Mobile Backhaul 5-Year Forecast January 2025 Report include:
-
The 5G build cycle is expected to be longer and more gradual compared to the 4G cycle. Thus, the report predicts that after mobile backhaul transport revenue declines in 2024, there is an opportunity for some near-term growth before the market further contracts in the outer forecast years.
-
The use of fibre/copper systems for mobile backhaul has increased with each generation of mobile radio technology. The report predicts that the share of backhaul links using fibre-based systems will exceed that of wireless-based systems throughout the forecast period. However, in the next five years, the share of links using wireless backhaul is projected to grow due to the higher levels of 5G deployments in geographic regions that rely on point-to-point microwave for mobile connectivity.
-
The microwave transmission market is projected to grow for the next three years at an average annual rate of 3% before entering a period of contraction in 2028. This market contraction is expected to last until the 6G cycle commences.
-
Due to the higher backhaul capacity requirement for 5G, E/V band systems are forecast to be in much higher demand. The report forecasts E/V Band shipments will grow at a five-year CAGR of 13%.